6.7 Comments and Conclusion

  • Can use data in table format (AY, From and To Age, Incremental Paid, Exposure)

  • Can we Use the CoV from the model even if select a different reserve?

    • No: since you don’t trust the reserve estimate

    • Yes: since the s.d. is a selection and the CoV from this model is a reasonable basis

  • Curve was selected because:

    • The move smoothly from 0 to 1

    • Closely match empirical data

    • 1st and 2nd derivative are calculable

    • Others can be used as well

MLE is useful for estimating both the expected emergence pattern and the variance

ODP is convenient link to LDF and Cape Cod estimates