27.10 Obtaining Predictive Distributions for Reserves Which Incorporate Expert Opinions - R. Verrall

Model is defined with (ODP or ODNB) and stochastic row parameters

Bayesian BF calculation:

  • Gamma moments (10.10)

    • Impact of \(\beta_i\) on the Gamma variance

  • Credibility formula (10.11) and credibility weight (10.12)

Use and calculate the stochastic column parameters

  • Use the parameters with (10.13), see fig. 10.1

  • Calculate the parameters \(\gamma_i\) pictorially, see fig. 10.2